We hear it all the time, potential home sellers concerned about putting their house on the market at the right time.  ”When is the best month to sell our home?”  Is it May, when schools are out, or March, when spring awakens and people are itching for change?

According to 2009 homes sales in East Nashville, the best month to sell your home is September.  Sales prices and units raise throughout the first half of the year and then plateau at a high point over the summer, but September shows the highest number of units sold and still the highest average sales price, making it the best month to sell your home.  Lots of closings are happening, and you haven’t had to drop your price to get the attention your home deserves.

If you’re thinking of selling your house, right now would be an ideal time to list.

The Greater Nashville Association of Realtors has reported mid-year figures for home sales in Nashville.  Compared to 2009, this year is showing increases in residential and condo sales in all counties.  In Davidson County, residential homes sold increased from 2,623 for the first half of 2009 to 3,078 so far in 2010.  The median sales price showed a slight decrease, but only from $155,000 to $153,000.  Condo sales in Davidson County has a promising increase, from 816 to 995.

Residential sales in Williamson County rose from 1,048 in 2009 to 1,396 for 2010, and condos sold went from 88 to 107.  We hope to see strong numbers continue through the rest of the year.

See the full report by GNAR here!

According to the Middle Tennessee RealTracs MLS, for areas 1-8 which represent Greater Nashville/Davidson County, the following statistics are for June 1, 2010 through June 30, 2010.

Total single family homes sold:  624 units (June 2009 posted 621 sales)

Average list price:  $221,611

Average sales price:  $213,505 (prices are down 3.09% from June 2009)

Average days on market:  75

Looking at each Nashville MLS Area 1 through 8, the following is the UNIT sales for each MLS area for June 2010, June 2009 and May 2010.

We’re in a market like we’ve never seen before.  Pricing a home is harder now more than ever.  Buyers demand more now than ever.  How do you price your home ahead of the curve and still get showings?  How do you buy and home and still feel like you are getting “the deal?”

Pricing is at the center of real estate sales success.  If you don’t have good pricing strategy and counseling, all the marketing in the world will do you no good as a home seller today.  The goal is to always price ahead of the market.  For example, if the market is improving at a rate of 0.05% each quarter and there’s a track record for that of at least two quarters, you’ll want to price your home on the upward swing.  The same holds true for a declining market.  If you price your home based off three months ago’s prices, you will sit on the market becoming stale and questioned.

Below, you will see the Nashville MLS Area 1-8 sales for May 2009 through today’s date.  Notice that the red line is all over the place.  This tells us that Nashville’s market over the past 12 months has been completely unpredictable.  It also tells us from the lowest point to the highest price point there has been a 15% spread.  The extreme low and the extreme are so skewed from the rest of the number set, that if they are discarded and we only look at a 12 month (rather than charted 14 month) spread, the dissonance is 9%.

Click to enlarge. Single Family Residential category for RealTracs MLS areas 1-8 only/Davidson County. Condos, multifamily, auctions excluded from data set.

The unit sales were so low in January (268 homes) and February (363), March’s $186,548 average sales price is an obvious reaction to the few homes that moved from the market in the two previous months.  Once those sellers reacted to the supply-demand dissonance in early 2010, the prices hit bottom then immediately climbed again.

As a buyer, you need to realize that the Nashville market isn’t hard hit like other markets nationwide.  We have had price fluctuations this year, but nothing like what you’ve heard horror stories about.  You have to realize that sellers have no pattern to follow on pricing nor do their agents.  The good news is you know you are buying in a confident, strong market.  The bad news is, you may not see the discount on the price you had hoped for.

As a seller, you need to realize it can be an okay time to sell; however, you may be left with one of two decisions in your sales strategy.  (1)  Sit tight for the price you want within the market and understand the market may take a bit longer to absorb the home or (2) Price as low as possible between 9 and 15% below current market and move it quickly.  The most important thing is to bring a good attitude to the table.  This market has little room for high drama and bad attitudes.  Also, remember, when you get lucky enough to get an offer, it will be low.

As long as you can grasp these statistics and analysis, you’ll be just fine in this Nashville market.  If you cannot, you may want to hang out for a little while.

From the Greater Nashville Association of REALTORS press release:

There were 2,270 home closings reported for the month of May, according to figures provided by the Greater Nashville Association of REALTORS®.  This represents a 27.3 percent increase from the 1,783 closings reported for May 2009.

Year-to-date closings are 8,607.  That total is up 20.4 percent from the 7,149 closings reported through the same period last year.

“The significant increase in May is very encouraging and the sustained growth in home sales is good news for the regional economy,” said GNAR President Lucy Smith.  “The residual impact of the tax credit will continue through another month, which will likely keep home sales strong. And, while the market may soften slightly after June, all those who sold their homes to people taking advantage of the tax credit have to find new places to live. With interest rates still very low and both inventory and affordability high, the market should remain healthy. Median prices for both single-family homes and condominiums are down only slightly – a reassurance that the value of homes in Greater Nashville remains consistent.”

“Naturally, there is a lot of conversation about what impact the recent flooding will have on the real estate market. The strong numbers for May represent activity after the flood. The flood has certainly had a huge impact on many families, and our thoughts and prayers are with them. But, the real estate market throughout all of Greater Nashville and Middle Tennessee continues to be active.”

A comparison of sales by category for May is:

There were 2,124 sales pending at the end of the month, compared with 2,000 pending sales at this time last year. The average number of days on the market for a single-family home was 84 days.

The median residential price in May was $167,700 for a single-family home and $151,825 for a condominium.  This compares with last year’s median residential and condominium prices $169,900 and $156,250, respectively.

Inventory at the end of May was 24,007, down from the 24,598 reported in May of 2009. The current inventory of properties by category, compared to last year, is:

“A good supply of homes remains, despite inventory being down slightly from last year.” said Smith. “Based on the current rate of home sales, there is about a 10-month supply of inventory. That is slightly weighted to in favor of buyers, since a six to eight month supply would be considered balanced. We are closer to that balance now than has been the case in quite a while.”

The Greater Nashville Association of REALTORS® is one of Middle Tennessee’s largest professional trade associations and serves as the primary voice for Nashville-area property owners.  REALTOR® is a registered trademark that may be used only by real estate professionals who are members of the National Association of Realtors and subscribe to its strict code of ethics.

After the May 1 and May 2 flood of Nashville and greater area, many homeowners are asking questions not only about clean-up and repairs but also about future value.  I decided to take two approaches to this blog, one from an opinion point-of-view and one from a fact point-of-view.

I tweeted and facebooked a two question survey asking the following questions:

As a homebuyer, if you knew a home had flooded, however the home was proven repaired, would you still purchase the home?

and

How much less or more do you think a home is worth after it has been flooded?  (Give your opinion, not researched facts.)

Opinion Point of View

The slight majority said they would NOT purchase the home.  For the second question, 8% said it was worth the same amount.  28% said it was worth 10% less.  56% said it was worth 25% less.  8% said it was worth 50% less.  None said it was worth more.

HUGE DISCLAIMER:  This was not a scientific study and the sampling was only 100.  Also, no real estate professional can predict a home’s future value nor should they.  I don’t know what the Nashville market will do.

Now, let’s move the second part of my research.  I called agents in Des Moines, Iowa, Fargo, North Dakota and parts of Mississippi who have lived through floods and the markets following those floods.  Des Moines was flooded in 1993; so, they have a strong history of numbers to support the market data.

Fact Point of View

Most agents will not place their name on hard data due to the litigious nature of the market, so no names are given here.  The blanket answer to the question, “Did your flood affect long term values on those affected homes,” was an overwhelmed “not really,” from almost every agent.  They admitted that the market opinion supports the small data I collected above, but the numbers after the flood didn’t support that opinion.  One Des Moines agent said that the homes in the majorly affected areas after their 1993 flood had to have flood certificates prior to closing, but the values remained similarly in line with the rest of the market.  Again, in Des Moines, they had areas that were considered not safe to build on where the values were gone, but that was a small area.

Much like Nashville, only certain areas are impacted.  It’s a 500 year flood zone.  We’re likely to not see anything like this for another 500 years.  We have little if ANY areas where you should never live again.  In Fargo, a few areas saw “buyouts” where homes couldn’t be built again.  One of the agents in Fargo emphasized, “Do not panic [with your market].  This is a rare, catastrophic event.”

In Mississippi, the message was the same on value.  I actually dug for agents who would give me the other side of this data, even in a confidential area; however, the message remained consistent with 100s of miles separating each of these zones, “Values were not affected.”

At the end of the day, we have larger issues to face right now with safety, health and well-being.  If you are freaking out over your home value, take that worry off your plate.  Other cities and other facts show that your worry may not be necessary.

As a real estate agent, I’ve been getting a ton of questions about home values after a flood.  My crew is in the middle of interviewing agents who have experienced isolated floods in their market to get more market data, however I need your opinion.  This is not a information capture.  Your information is safe. Check back for future analysis.

Click here to take survey

Update 5/4/2010 6:15 p.m. Here’s the number for FEMA Nashville Flood Claims.
800-621-FEMA

Register for claims beginning Wednesday, May 5, 2010 here.

I‘m already starting to get a few calls and questions about water damage and homeownership in the Nashville area after the floods that are currently rising in Nashville.  Here are the things you should remember after the waters recede.

While Nashville has not been declared a Federal Disaster area at this blog time, here is a link to what FEMA set up to Disaster Help and Resources.

1.  Insurance.  Unless you are in a flood zone, you likely won’t have flood insurance.  You will need to check with your insurance company to see what is covered.  FEMA’s site also has information on making flood claims.

2.  Water removal.  There are several companies who handle water removal in the area.  Several of the agents in my office have used Property Restoration Specialists and report good things.  Another company is Flood Control.  **Edit addition:  Chad Whitworth w/LDR Construction specializes in water extraction, drying, mold & mildew remediation; 615.336.2440.

3.  Mold issues.  Of course, mold isn’t necessarily an issue in the heart of this tragedy, but in the coming weeks, we may see more mold issues.  Grove Mold Remediation seems to do good work and are very responsive.

4.  My house is on the market.  If you have had water issues, you will need to ask your agent for a new “Tennessee Residential Property Condition Disclosure” and update the water information.  Will this hurt the sale of your home?  Who knows?  Rains like these are so rare that we’re going to have to wait it out and see what happens.

5.  I’m buying a house in Nashville.  If you’re buying in certain areas, especially west Nashville, Antioch, Green Hills, West Meade, Brookside, Goodlettsville and several other places, you’ll want to do your homework.  Remember the news always shows the hardest hits parts.  Many areas of Nashville are not experiencing heavy damage, but you will want your agent to ask the right questions.

While it does us no good at this point, all we can do is be ready for something like this if it ever happens again.  Here’s a guide.

Please comment below if you have more resources for home rescue.  Please give a web address and/or phone number, too.

(Photo credit: Randy Oxley)

The Value Players.  Few Davidson County/Nashville zip codes show the price diversity that 37208 possesses.  Relocating buyers or those unfamiliar with the area often find the area perplexing.  How could one segment’s values be more than five times the value of a virtually neighboring spot.

While the unit sales for single family homes were at a low in 2009 in 37208, Germantown, Salemtown and Hope Gardens emerge again as the price point leaders.

Click for larger version.

Germantown.  Few parts of Nashville are as well known as Germantown.  As Nashville’s first ever suburb, the tiny zone’s breath-taking downtown views, easy access to every part of town and one of the closest neighborhoods to downtown where you can own a house make it a consistently popular area.  Popular restaurants like Germantown Cafe and Monell’s coupled with area-attracting events like OktoberFest, keep Germantown’s namesake in the top of mind.

2009 brought a pitiful two sales to its city blocks.  1224 5th Avenue North was built in 1998 and sold for $237,500 for 1626 sqft.  1317 4th Avenue North  was built in 2004 and closed for $350,000 for 1965 sqft.  Twenty-four homes tried the market, but didn’t see the closing table.

Salemtown.  While this area stays in naming conflict with Germantown, its sales surprisingly outpaced its bordering city.  Many Germantown residents are quick to correct those who call the area north of Hume “Germantown.”  It has indeed emerged as its own desireable spot.  Thirteen homes closed with an average price per square foot of $112.82.  608A Hume saw the highest value in all of 37208 at $390,000.  The area still struggles with the new vs. the old mentality which Germantown endured in the early 2000s.  5th and 6th Avenue North remain the most popular and valued streets.

Hope Gardens.  The breakthrough neighborhood of the 2000s, Hope Gardens emerged from disrepair and block after block of delapidation to see some of the trendiest, most beautiful homes in the downtown radius.  Spurred by the Hope VI program, a land grant program begun in the Clinton Administration, Hope Gardens is truly a story of success and vitality.

In 2003, skeptics would have ripped anyone who forecasted a home could sale for $290,000 ever in this neighborhood, but that’s exactly what 1017 Warren Street did in 2009 for 2149 sqft.  Locklayer Street continues to be the value spot.  The completion of Park Place in 2008 introduced an entirely new population to the 5×5 block area and will be interesting to watch as those continue to evolve.

All The Rest. Historic Buena Vista continues to develop as a hot spot in 37208.  With new streetscaping and signage, it’s a picture perfect zone.  1025 Monroe Street closed for $295,000.  Harding Plan saw one of the most exciting homes close extremely quickly.  1223 Phillips Street’s full green built design (down to the water catching gutters) flew “off the shelf” in a few days at $126,500, setting a price record for the neighborhood.

Buena Vista Park (not to be confused with Historic Buena Vista) brought the most unit sells, however the price swing is hard to analyze.  The low sell was on 16th Avenue North for $11,500 with the highest sell on 1728 Kellow Street for $117,000.  The average sale price in BVP was $47,154.

On the March 16, 2010 NBC Today Show, real estate expert Barbara Corcoran listed Nashville (alongside cities like Philadelphia and San Francisco) as one of the top cities ripe for recovery in the housing market.

The intriguing part of the Nashville market is that we didn’t see the hit that many of the other cities around America saw in the recession.  Below the chart shows Nashville MLS areas 1-8, January through March of 2006-2010 for the first quarter only.  The red line shows UNIT sales while the blue bars show average sales price.

The good news, if you’re a buyer, you’ll likely be able to pay 2006’s prices.  The neutral news is that it’s not a deep, amazing deal.  It only leads to the less-than-stellar news for the sellers…you’ll have to sell your  home for what it was worth in 2006.  If you bought your home in 2006 or after, well, do I really need to tell you?